Thinking in Bets

  1. Resulting: judging the quality of a decision with imperfect knowledge based on its result.
  2. Hindsight bias: related to resulting, thinking that you should have known better.
  3. The world is like poker, random events heavily influence results. Always kepe that in mind when making decisions.
  4. Use a group to keep you in check and analyze a decision without resulting.
  5. Use a pre-mortem to increase the likelihood of achieving goals. Surfaces probable paths with negative results so you can factor them in.